VNET Stock Surges 17% on Guidance Raise and $50M Buyback Authorization

The Catalyst

VNET just went absolutely nuts today! Up 17% to $6.89 on a beautiful one-two combo: raised guidance AND a $50M buyback program. When Chinese companies start raising numbers and buying back stock simultaneously, that’s when you know business is cooking.

Revenue guidance up to $1.28-1.30B (13% growth at the high end) and EBITDA growing 18-20%? That’s margin expansion while scaling - the sweet spot every growth investor dreams about. China’s AI boom is creating insane demand for data centers, and VNET’s right in the middle of it all.

This Has All The Right Ingredients

VNET’s sitting pretty at the intersection of China’s digital explosion and the global AI infrastructure arms race. They’re the neutral party that everyone needs - Alibaba, Tencent, international companies expanding into China. When you’re the Switzerland of data centers in the world’s second-largest economy, life gets pretty good.

Here’s what’s got me fired up: EBITDA growing faster than revenue means they’re getting more efficient as they scale. That’s operating leverage in action, baby! Plus that $50M buyback? That’s nearly 4% of the market cap providing a floor under the stock.

Management’s basically saying “We see growth accelerating AND our stock’s too cheap.” That’s a powerful combination.

Technical Setup

This thing was coiled like a spring for three weeks, grinding between $5.80-6.00 in a textbook cup-and-handle formation. That $6.00 level got tested more times than a crash test dummy, building up massive energy for today’s explosion.

What’s lighting me up:

• Absolutely destroyed $6.00 resistance with conviction
• RSI at 74? Chinese tech can stay hot when guidance gets raised
• Gapped clear above all moving averages - that’s a regime change
• Clear runway to $7.50-8.00 from the 2024 highs
• 287% volume explosion? That’s institutional panic buying

When guidance raises meet technical breakouts on massive volume, magic happens.

Is VNET Stock a Buy After Guidance Raise?

When Chinese tech companies raise guidance while announcing buybacks, historical data shows continuation rates above 80% over the following 4-6 weeks. The combination of fundamental momentum and technical breakout creates compelling risk/reward for growth investors seeking China exposure.

Today’s Price Action

The session opened with immediate buying pressure as VNET gapped up to $6.15, clearing the recent consolidation high within the first hour. The guidance announcement during market hours triggered sustained institutional buying that propelled the stock through multiple resistance levels without any significant pullbacks.

How This China Beast Ran

• 9:30 AM: Gapped to $6.15 - volume screaming from the opening bell
• 10:00 AM: Guidance news drops - rocket ship to $6.50
• 11:00 AM: Smashed through $6.60 - institutions backing up trucks
• 12:30 PM: Lunch consolidation at $6.70 - even took a professional break
• 2:00 PM: Afternoon surge through $6.80 - momentum building
• 3:30 PM: Final hour explosion to $6.93 - absolutely beautiful
• 4:00 PM: Closed at $6.89 near the highs - that’s champion behavior

This is what happens when Chinese companies deliver good news. The moves can be absolutely vicious to the upside.

Volume Analysis

Today’s volume patterns revealed massive institutional participation in the guidance-driven rally. The stock traded over 42 million shares, representing 287% of the 20-day average volume, with unmistakable accumulation characteristics:

• Opening Hour: 8.5M shares (20% of daily volume) with 85% buy-side pressure
• Guidance Release: Immediate 5M share spike within 30 minutes
• Sustained Buying: Volume remained elevated above 2M shares per 30-minute period
• Dark Pool Activity: Large block trades detected at $6.50, $6.70, and $6.85 levels

The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) remained consistently below market price after 10:30 AM, confirming sustained institutional buying with minimal profit-taking throughout the explosive session.

Why VNET Stock Is Rising Today

The dual catalyst of guidance raise and buyback authorization created perfect conditions for a breakout:

• Revenue Acceleration: Upper end of new guidance implies 13% growth acceleration
• Margin Expansion: EBITDA growing faster than revenue signals operational leverage
• Capital Allocation: $50M buyback shows management confidence and provides floor
• China Tech Revival: Broader sector momentum as regulatory concerns ease

China Data Center Boom

VNET’s guidance raise reflects the explosive growth in China’s data center market driven by multiple catalysts:

AI Infrastructure Demand:

• Chinese tech giants racing to build AI capabilities
• Government push for domestic AI leadership
• Enterprise digital transformation accelerating post-COVID
• Cross-border data flow requirements driving neutral provider demand

Market Dynamics:

• China data center market growing 15%+ annually through 2027
• Tier 1 city capacity constraints driving pricing power
• Government efficiency mandates favoring scale operators
• 5G rollout multiplying edge computing requirements

VNET’s Competitive Position:

• Carrier-neutral model provides flexibility large enterprises demand
• 30+ data centers across key China markets
• Strong relationships with all major telecom carriers
• International standard certifications attracting MNC clients

How To Play This China Rocket

If you want to ride this data center express:

Jump In Points

• Aggressive: Any dip to $6.60-6.70 - that’s your gift
• Patient: Wait for the $6.00 retest - let it prove the breakout

Don’t Get Burned

• Stop: Under $6.00 - if that breaks, the party’s over
• Size: China ADRs can be wild - size for the volatility

Where To Take Profits

• First: $7.50 - previous highs, some selling inevitable
• Second: $8.50 - cup-and-handle target
• Home Run: $9.50-10.00 - if China tech really takes off

China plays can run harder and faster than you expect. But they can also reverse just as quickly.

When to Take Profits on VNET?

Scale-out approach recommended given China volatility:

• 1/3 position at $7.50 (previous resistance)
• 1/3 position at $8.50 (pattern target)
• Let final 1/3 ride with trailing stop at $6.50

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: $6.70 (today’s consolidation), $6.50 (intraday pivot), $6.00 (breakout point)
• Resistance: $7.50 (2024 highs), $8.50 (pattern target), $10.00 (psychological)
• Stop Loss: $6.00 (below breakout confirmation)

What Price Target for VNET Stock?

Near-term technical targets based on today’s breakout:

• Conservative: $7.50 (9% upside from current)
• Base Case: $8.50 (23% upside, pattern completion)
• Bullish: $10.00 (45% upside if China tech rally accelerates)

Share Buyback Impact

The $50 million repurchase program provides multiple benefits:

Technical Support:

• Represents ~4% of market cap at current prices
• Creates natural buying pressure during any weakness
• Reduces float and increases earnings per share
• Signals management views stock as undervalued

Strategic Implications:

• First buyback in company history shows confidence inflection
• Suggests strong free cash flow generation ahead
• Indicates no major M&A plans requiring capital
• Aligns management with shareholders

VNET Stock Forecast 2025

Based on raised guidance and sector trends:

• Revenue growth accelerating to 11-13% range
• EBITDA margins expanding 200+ basis points
• Free cash flow inflection enabling shareholder returns
• Multiple expansion as China discount narrows

Bottom Line

This is what inflection points look like: raised guidance + first-ever buyback + technical breakout on massive volume. VNET’s hitting on all cylinders at exactly the right time as China’s AI infrastructure boom accelerates.

Closing near the highs on 287% volume tells me institutional money is positioning for something bigger. When you’re the neutral data center player in the world’s largest AI arms race, that’s a pretty good place to be.

The guidance raise might actually be conservative if China’s digital transformation keeps accelerating. Sometimes the best trades are hiding in plain sight in overlooked markets. This could be one of those times.

Trading at a significant discount to global data center peers despite comparable growth rates, VNET offers an attractive risk/reward for investors seeking exposure to China’s digital economy expansion. The technical setup supports a move toward $8.50-10.00 over the coming months, particularly if management delivers on the raised guidance targets.

What I’m Tracking Tomorrow

• Analyst upgrades? They always chase the momentum
• Can it hold $6.70? That’s the new battleground
• Volume needs to stay hot - 20M+ or the story’s cooling
• Other China ADRs following? Rising tide lifts all boats
• Buyback details could add more fuel
• Gap above $7.00 and we’re testing $7.50 fast

China tech momentum can be explosive when it gets going. The setup’s there - question is whether you’re brave enough to ride it.

The convergence of guidance momentum, buyback support, and China tech sector rotation makes VNET one of the most compelling breakout stories in today’s market.